Resume Advice for Candidates

As economic pressures rise and unemployment increases, SKILLSOOP is committed to supporting procurement and supply chain professionals by providing actionable tips for developing a strong resume. To maximize your chances of being selected for interviews, SKILLSOOP recommends adopting a dual-resume strategy, tailored to two distinct objectives: Progression and Impact.

Progression-Focused Resume

The objective of this document is to highlight career growth potential. SKILLSOOP advises structuring the resume as follows:

  1. Technology and Qualifications: List these prominently at the top of the document.
  2. Executive Summary: Include key details such as spend size, categories managed, technical skills, industry expertise, and leadership scale.
  3. Professional Experience: Focus in detail on the most recent two positions or the past five years. Highlight key achievements and accountabilities.
  4. Company Profiles: Provide context for employers by describing market share, turnover, and core offerings.

Impact-Focused Resume

This resume is designed to demonstrate measurable contributions and outcomes. While the top section mirrors the Progression resume (technology, qualifications, and executive summary), the key differentiation lies in:

  1. Employment History: Provide a concise summary of past roles.
  2. Key Achievements: Focus on five to eight standout accomplishments. Structure these using a Problem/Opportunity-Solution-Outcome framework.
  3. Metrics and Skills: Clearly label each achievement with relevant technical skills and include metrics to quantify impact.

Examples of Key Sections

Executive Summary
A polished example might read:
“A tertiary-qualified (MBA) procurement professional with experience spanning FMCG, Retail, and Mining sectors, managing spends of up to $750M across diverse portfolios including packaging, MRO, Co-Pack, and HME. With leadership experience managing teams of up to 20 FTEs, key technical skills include category strategy development, negotiation, supplier development, and P2P implementation using technologies such as Coupa and ARIBA. Seeking a senior functional role in the private sector, driving revenue, risk management, and ROCE across a complex third-party matrix.”

Company Profile
To provide context, an example might be:
“A Regional FMCG business operating across India, Singapore, Vietnam, Australia, and NZ, with annual revenue of $1.5 billion and an 11% market share in its core product categories. Employing over 5,000 FTEs and achieving an organic growth rate of 6% per annum, the company is a rising consumer favorite across Asia, with well-known brands X, Y, Z, and W.”

Role Profile
To showcase responsibilities, consider:
“Appointed as Portfolio Director to oversee performance across a $500M spend matrix covering MRO, Marketing, Packaging, and Finished Goods. Led a team of 12, comprising category managers and analysts, tasked with optimizing business value while managing internal and external risks.”

Key Achievement Example
For impact, achievements should be specific and quantifiable:
“Company X faced escalating plant maintenance costs, increasing 3.7% YoY on a $100M category value. Implemented a new category strategy to in-source MRO, leveraging a dedicated MRO P&L to service similar businesses. This approach converted costs into a revenue-generating operation, saving $1.5M in service costs, driving $3M in additional revenue, and achieving $500K in NPAT.”

By adopting SKILLSOOP’s proven techniques, procurement and supply chain professionals can present themselves as compelling candidates who are both strategic and results-driven.

Market Summary July 2024

July Market Summary

Sector Performance

  • Inflows: Banking, Discretionary, Utilities, and Technology sectors attracted significant investor capital, reflecting defensive positioning and optimism around AI and semiconductor developments.
  • Outflows: Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Telecoms saw capital outflows, driven by inflation risks and signs of weakening economic demand.

Commodities Overview

  • Iron Ore: Influenced by China’s struggling property sector. Further analysis provided in this report.
  • Copper: Challenges persist with China’s economic rebound, compounded by inventory drawdowns in manufacturing.
  • Crude Oil: Prices supported by seasonal summer demand and short covering in futures markets.
  • Natural Gas: Supply increases are outpacing summer demand, exerting downward pressure.
  • Aluminum: Impacted by China’s sluggish recovery and weakening coal market.

Housing and Vehicle Trends

  • Housing: May house prices rose by 6.8%, attributed to low supply and increased immigration.
  • Vehicle Sales: April sales were down, though market data suggests recovery in May and June.

Macroeconomic Indicators

  • GDP Per Capita: Declining due to the combined effects of inflation, immigration, and rising energy costs.
  • Retail Sales: May expectations indicate a modest 0.7% increase, signaling constrained consumer activity.
  • PMI: Falling at the fastest rate since 2020, reflecting slowing procurement activity.
  • Producer Prices: Increased in Q1, with predictions of continued growth through Q2.

Trade and Exports

  • New Orders: Weakening based on PMI and consumer data.
  • Exports: April exports hit a 28-month low, driven by reduced commodity demand.
  • Balance of Trade: Supported by weaker imports relative to exports; however, both contracted.

Interest Rates and Inflation

  • 10-Year Yield: Rising amid inflationary pressures and expectations of further rate hikes.
  • Inflation: Australia’s inflation rate rose to 4% in May.
  • Deposit Rates: Unchanged at 3.5%, despite the Federal Funds rate at 4.35%, resulting in real rates yielding negative 0.5%.

Government Spending

  • Fiscal Policy: Increased government spending, coupled with energy credits, is expected to contribute to inflationary tailwinds.

Market Insights August 2024


Sector Investment Trends

Investor capital has notably shifted into Banking, Technology, Discretionary, and Healthcare sectors, signaling optimism for potential market stimulus and renewed confidence in equities over debt markets. However, concerns remain about the Discretionary sector, given Australia’s real economic weakness.

  • Global Inflation Rates:
    • New Zealand: 3.3%
    • United States: 3.0%
    • United Kingdom: 2.8%
    • Canada: 2.7%
    • Australia: 3.6% (Core: 4.0%)
    • Forecasted June Quarter inflation for Australia is 3.8% (refer to Slide 2).

Economic Indicators

  • Currency: The Australian Dollar (AUD) is depreciating against a strong USD despite potential rate hikes (20% probability). Factors such as trade balance declines, increasing imports over exports, and global market AUD supply exacerbate the situation. A potential US rate cut could strengthen the AUD.
  • US Debt Concerns:
    • Debt exceeds $35 trillion, with annual issuance surpassing $2 trillion.
    • Interest payments consume 75% of government revenues, an unsustainable trajectory.
    • Declining global demand for US debt could necessitate Federal Reserve intervention, expanding USD supply and weakening its value.
    • A weaker USD could relieve inflation for creditor nations reliant on USD for imports.

Banking and Liquidity Challenges

  • Yield Curve: The US yield curve remains inverted, signaling constrained bank lending and a lack of credit expansion.
  • Liquidity: Suppressed long-term yields and contracting money supply indicate ongoing liquidity challenges. M2 money supply recovery suggests stress in small-to-medium enterprises.
  • Consumer Spending: Elevated spending and debt levels in May are indicative of economic strain rather than strength, with households increasingly reliant on credit to manage budgets.

Commodity Market Overview

  • Copper: Prices have fallen 20% to a four-month low due to inventory surpluses and declining demand. Global PMIs suggest continued pricing pressures, though long-term demand may recover with electrification trends.
  • Crude Oil: Prices have softened since early July, influenced by weak production activity in Germany and Japan. Declining US inventories suggest a potential price bottom, but geopolitical tensions (e.g., US-Iran dynamics) could push prices above $120 per barrel.
  • Iron Ore: Prices are tied to China’s weakening property sector, deflation, and industrial shifts towards recycled steel, threatening Australia’s largest historic export.
  • Aluminum: Despite US tariffs on Chinese imports, global oversupply—driven by China’s 60% share of primary production—continues to suppress prices.

Labour and Procurement Insights

  • Employment Trends:
    • Rising demand in UtilitiesFMCG, and Government sectors, while Professional Services face declines due to reduced government spending.
    • Labour inflation is expected to subside as businesses reduce headcount to manage wage increases, further straining Australia’s productivity rates.
  • Procurement Challenges:
    • Structural issues in procurement departments—particularly flat hierarchies—constrain retention, progression, and remuneration growth.
    • Rapid salary escalation without corresponding capability development diminishes the value procurement delivers to businesses.
    • Increased training and mentoring, coupled with deeper technical development, are critical for sustainable value creation and function maturity.

Strategic Considerations for Procurement Evolution

  • Capability Building: Transition from cost-focus to strategic third-party engagement, emphasizing revenue impact and collaborative design.
  • Retention Strategies: Address remuneration imbalances and improve internal career progression pathways to enhance team stability and expertise.
  • Technical Depth: Prioritize training investments to align remuneration with measurable technical capability and value delivery.

Procurement, as a function, must pivot towards delivering strategic shareholder value while overcoming its cost and capability challenges. Without this shift, businesses risk undervaluing the role of supply chain and procurement, missing opportunities for competitive advantage and performance enhancement.

October Market Insights

October Market Report

Key Highlights:

Weakening Demand from China Amid Economic Woes

  • Chinese demand continues to weaken as the country’s economic outlook deteriorates.
  • Rising inventories in China highlight contracting domestic consumption.
  • However, an uptick in trade activity suggests potential signs of demand recovery in select sectors.

Natural Gas and Energy Market Dynamics

  • Asian demand for natural gas is rising as the region pivots from coal to cleaner energy sources.
  • Oil prices exhibited sharp volatility. After breaking below a critical triangle pattern, crude oil experienced a sharp rebound, potentially retesting previous support levels in the coming months.
  • Natural gas prices are likely to increase, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia.

Metals and Precious Commodities

  • Gold: Achieving new record highs weekly, gold remains a robust asset amid ongoing fiat currency debasement and central bank monetary policies. Banking system vulnerabilities and expanded global money supply have accelerated its price trajectory.
  • Silver: Expected to rise due to both industrial demand and its role as a monetary asset.
  • Copper: Fed rate cuts are bolstering demand, resulting in a positive outlook for prices.
  • Cobalt: The commodity, essential for EV batteries, is experiencing structural decline due to diminishing global EV demand. Breach of critical support levels indicates further downside risk.

Agricultural Commodities

  • Rice: Forecasted price declines due to increased exports and reduced tariffs.
  • Protein and Jewelry (Gold): Exports in these sectors are driving an uptick in the balance of trade.
  • Supply Concerns:
    • Weather and disease issues in West Africa are impacting supply.
    • Brazil faces shortages, driving price increases.
    • The U.S. supply surge, coupled with demand contraction, is likely to weaken prices in some categories.

Economic Indicators

  • PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, reflecting a persistent softening of manufacturing conditions.
  • Production is contracting at its fastest pace since 2020.
  • Elevated producer prices point to stubborn inflationary pressures.

Currency and Yield Outlook

  • U.S. Dollar: Anticipated to weaken due to lower rates and developments in BRICS economies.
  • Yield Curve: Expected normalization is likely to trigger a global recession and credit event, impacting borrowing costs and investment strategies.

Industrial Trends

  • Imports are down, signaling slowing industrial consumption.
  • Exports are up, primarily driven by agricultural and luxury goods.
  • Balance of Trade exceeded expectations, buoyed by shrinking import volumes.

Iron Ore Market

  • Iron ore has broken below its long-standing triangle pattern support, with follow-through selling reinforcing the bearish trend.
  • Prices may revisit the $40 lows seen in previous years unless a significant global infrastructure boom materializes.

Broader Implications

  • Businesses must adjust strategies to navigate shifting global market dynamics and persistent economic uncertainties. Emphasis should be placed on cost control, supply chain optimization, and exploring resilient investment opportunities.
  • While the weakening U.S. dollar and potential normalization of the yield curve create challenges, they also present opportunities for diversification and hedging against systemic risks.

Summary

The October market environment underscores heightened volatility across commodities, currency, and economic indicators. Businesses and investors should remain vigilant, focusing on adapting to inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting consumer and industrial demand trends.

Germany

Germany was once the economic powerhouse of Europe, with an economy exceeding the combined strength of Finland, Sweden, Poland, Romania, Austria, Belarus, and Bulgaria. In 2020, I wrote extensively about the potential consequences of Germany’s decision to close its nuclear reactors in pursuit of its 2030 climate targets. At the time, it seemed clear that this policy would lead to industrial decline—a conclusion evident to anyone with a fundamental understanding of commerce. Now, the reality has materialized, and Germany faces significant economic challenges.

Intel recently announced the suspension of a $30 billion semiconductor chip factory project in Eastern Germany. This plant, which was projected to create 3,000 high-paying jobs, could have helped bridge the economic disparity between the eastern and western regions of the country. The cancellation has dampened investor sentiment regarding Germany’s attractiveness as a hub for capital investment. Ireland, in contrast, remains Intel’s primary European production center for the next 2-3 years.

Germany’s economic decline has been evident since 2018, with GDP per capita experiencing a sharp downturn. Further compounding these issues, Volkswagen has announced plans to lay off 30,000 workers across its German plants. This decision comes as electric vehicle (EV) sales stagnate and energy costs surge, with electricity prices in Germany being twice as high as in the United States. Industrial production in Germany has fallen by 25% since 2016, and while the war in Ukraine has played a role, the country’s energy policy has undoubtedly exacerbated the crisis.

The shift towards alternative energy sources—which I avoid calling “renewable” due to their inherent limitations—has proven unable to match the reliability and output of the previous nuclear infrastructure. This policy misstep has placed significant strain on Germany’s industrial sector and its broader economic stability.

Volkswagen Faces Challenges Amidst the Rise of Chinese EV Production

Volkswagen is reportedly planning to shut down certain manufacturing facilities in response to the rising dominance of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) producers. The transition to EV production, a segment not traditionally aligned with the German automotive industry’s focus on combustion engine vehicles, has become a significant point of concern. The overcapitalization in EV production is eroding profits, highlighting the increasing challenges faced by German manufacturers.

When we consider the disposable nature of EVs, which often retain minimal value in the secondary market, the cost of production and consumer pricing become pivotal. Chinese manufacturers are currently able to produce EVs at a significantly lower cost, with production prices as low as $10,000 USD. This enables them to drastically undercut Volkswagen and similar European alternatives, driven by heavy government subsidies, superior energy policies, and a more cost-efficient supply chain in China.

Furthermore, Germany’s infrastructure has been hindered by a lack of investment, contributing to rising strikes and declining wages. This situation serves as a stark warning to other nations, particularly Australia, which may find itself at a crossroads in the near future. A country once renowned for its economic complexity, driven by innovation and engineering, can deteriorate rapidly when faced with missteps in government policy—such as misguided narratives around nuclear energy, erroneous claims regarding alternative energies, and misallocation of public spending.

If Germany is unable to reverse its course, there is a tangible risk that the Eurozone—and potentially even the Euro currency—may not survive. This, in turn, could trigger a domino effect, ultimately challenging the broader global economic landscape and undermining U.S. hegemony. As such, businesses worldwide must remain vigilant to the shifts taking place in this critical region.

September Market Insights

September Market Report: A Corporate Analysis

Economic Overview

Unemployment Trends

Unemployment rates are on the rise, driven by contractions in government spending, household consumption, and exports. With inflation adjustments, the overall economic contraction paints a challenging picture for the labor market. This scenario reflects diminished household savings and increased reliance on consumer credit to offset the escalating cost of living.

Consumer Behavior and Credit Trends

Household savings have reached critically low levels, prompting a significant expansion in consumer credit. As living costs rise, many households are leveraging credit to sustain their financial obligations. This trend underscores the vulnerabilities in consumer resilience.

Property Market Dynamics

The property market is softening under sustained cost-of-living pressures and elevated unemployment rates. Declining consumer confidence and tighter financial conditions contribute to a slowdown in housing activity.

Vehicle Sales and Registrations

While vehicle sales have increased, a decline in new car registrations reveals a potential shift in consumer preferences or financial constraints, highlighting the complexities of interpreting consumer spending patterns.

Manufacturing Sector Insights

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is declining, albeit at a slower pace. New orders have reached a three-month low, indicating weakening demand. Rising producer prices signal persistent inflationary pressures within the supply chain.

Trade Performance

Imports have contracted, aligning with reduced consumption, depleted savings, and weak economic conditions. Similarly, export contractions emphasize Australia’s reliance on core trading partners, particularly China and Japan, and its primary export commodity, iron ore. The balance of trade is deteriorating, a trend likely to exacerbate fiscal pressures over the next 24 months, potentially necessitating higher taxation.

Financial Markets and Yields

Short-term yields are declining as investors anticipate economic weakness, while long-term yields are expected to rise in response to inflationary pressures. Inflation remains persistent, partly due to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary expansion during the pandemic. The deposit rate remains at 3.5%, but real returns are negative, reflecting erosion from both official and unofficial inflation estimates.

Commodity Markets

Natural Gas and Crude Oil

Natural gas prices have plummeted to 18-year lows, signaling bearish market conditions. Oil prices are consolidating within the range established post-2020 lows, with potential for a significant trend breach.

Iron Ore

Iron ore’s breach of long-term support levels has profound implications for government revenues and national income. As one of Australia’s most critical exports, declining iron ore prices may severely impact fiscal stability and export income.

Other Commodities

  • Copper: Continues to show bullish strength, though potential risks remain.
  • Aluminum: Prices are stable but vulnerable to a breach of support, which could drive prices towards long-term trend levels.

Global Economic Factors

Japan

Japanese monetary policy volatility poses risks to global investments and supply chains. The Bank of Japan’s limited policy options, coupled with high debt levels, constrain its ability to manage economic challenges effectively.

China

China faces economic headwinds, including a deflating property sector, slowing fixed asset investments, and declining consumer confidence. While industrial output and retail sales show modest growth, these figures fall short of the government’s GDP targets. Capital flight and equity market declines compound the challenges, while geopolitical tensions, including EV trade wars and tariffs, add complexity to China’s economic pivot.

United States

Macro data indicates a looming recession. Disappointing non-farm payrolls data and corporate earnings have triggered significant market reversals, emphasizing vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy. Cheap Japanese debt, which has historically supported Australian financial markets, may now be a source of instability as the yen faces challenges.

Domestic Challenges in Australia

Government Spending and Business Impact

Reduced government spending is contracting sectors such as professional services, manufacturing, and retail. Recruitment and consulting firms face a tightening market, with interim managers struggling to secure new projects. Layoffs among Tier 1 candidates further exacerbate the labor market’s challenges.

Consumer Conditions

Households are grappling with rising mortgage costs, negative savings, and declining real wages, which have returned to 2010 levels when adjusted for inflation. Retail revenues are declining despite inflationary price increases, with discretionary spending showing pronounced weakness.

Strategic Business Implications

The bleak economic landscape requires businesses to adopt a strategic focus on cost management and operational efficiency. Companies with strong balance sheets may seek acquisitions to optimize supply chains and diversify revenue streams. Smaller businesses should explore collaborative approaches to maintain stability.

Currency Projections

The Australian dollar (AUD) faces downward pressure, potentially dropping below USD 0.60 in the event of a credit collapse. Weak domestic conditions and global monetary trends suggest limited upside for the currency.

Recommendations

  • Corporate Strategy: Revise cost structures to account for higher regulatory and operational expenses. Focus on innovation and lean operations to navigate economic challenges.
  • Supply Chain Management: Emphasize flexibility and collaboration to mitigate volatility in demand and costs.
  • Market Adaptation: Monitor global trends and policy shifts to anticipate and adapt to changing economic conditions.

Conclusion

Australia’s economic environment is increasingly challenging, characterized by rising unemployment, weak consumer confidence, and structural pressures on key industries. Strategic adaptability and resilience will be critical for businesses to navigate these turbulent times.

Special Report Inflation

What is Inflation?

Inflation is primarily driven by monetary factors rather than supply chain disruptions. While supply chain issues and demand shocks can influence prices within certain sectors, they are not the root cause of inflation. The fundamental driver of inflation occurs when the supply of broad money (M2) exceeds the volume of goods and services produced within the economy. This imbalance results in rising prices.

Monetary policy, controlled by central banks, and fiscal policy, enacted by governments, aim to manage economic conditions and prevent overheating or excessive cooling. However, when a nation loses control over its ability to produce goods or its own monetary policy—such as is the case with the Eurozone—the challenge of controlling inflation becomes significantly more complex.

Commodities like oil play a pivotal role in the broader economy by influencing costs associated with essential goods and services, including clothing, energy, commuting, and food. Rising energy prices can drive inflation across various sectors until demand adjusts. Notably, energy commodities, especially oil, have an outsized impact on global inflation due to their linkage to the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury market. These fiscal asset classes are central to global trade, with the U.S. consumption machine being funded by deficit spending in exchange for imported tangible goods.

How Did We Get Here?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), like many central banks globally, can influence the short end of the yield curve and participate in open market operations. However, it is retail banks that ultimately drive the expansion of the M2 money supply through credit creation. When the RBA keeps interest rates low, banks and investors are incentivized to chase yield, resulting in increased borrowing at short-term rates and lending at longer-term rates.

This dynamic leads to a flattening of the yield curve from the suppressed Federal Funds (FF) rate to the 10-year bond. As a result, asset bubbles emerge, with investor capital flowing into corporate bonds and equities in search of yield targets around 7%. Simultaneously, banks ramp up lending to corporate real estate and residential mortgages, further inflating property demand and prices.

Low interest rates accelerate the velocity of money, pushing more capital into stocks, bonds, and real estate, thereby increasing asset prices and supporting equity values. The wealth effect that follows drives consumption across the economy, as individuals tap into home equity to finance lifestyle choices such as home renovations, vacations, luxury purchases, or even property investment. With low rates a global phenomenon and manufacturing outsourced to low-cost economies, consumable inflation was delayed but eventually surged—like a coiled spring—when cheap Chinese imports flooded the market, pressuring domestic producers.

As employment surged in the services and gig economy, fuelled by abundant capital and easy access to credit, low unemployment and high demand for talent pushed up wages. However, wages could never rise at a pace to match escalating property prices. Meanwhile, government-sponsored capital inflows from China helped perpetuate this trend, effectively trapping middle-aged children in the family home, unable to save for their own properties. This in turn further supported demand in sectors like restaurants, gyms, and the automobile market, as personal savings took a back seat.

The Road to Rising Inflation

As global economies struggled to recover from the economic impact of lockdowns, inflation began to take hold in Western economies, exacerbated by poorly executed monetary policies. Central banks initially promised that inflation would be transitory, but this forecast proved to be inaccurate. Inflation did not subside as expected, and the reality of the situation began to unfold with stark consequences.

Inflationary pressures intensified over an 18-month period as the vast increase in the money supply started to be absorbed by the economy. A significant portion of the economy is driven by services (80%) and government spending (65%), making inflation harder to mitigate. From 2021 through 2023, Western nations experienced some of the most aggressive interest rate hikes in recent history, further squeezing household budgets. As a result, in 2024, families are facing the difficult task of managing their cost of living amidst soaring prices.

The Impact of Inflation on the Economy and the Government’s Role in Stimulus Policy

Inflation, when left unchecked, can have profound negative effects on the broader economy, even as it provides certain benefits to governments that have leveraged Keynesian economic theories. The concept of government stimulus, championed by British economist John Maynard Keynes, was initially designed to address economic stagnation. Keynes believed that economies could experience periods of inefficiency where supply and demand diverged, thus challenging the classical economic theory posited by French economist Jean-Baptiste Say. Say’s Law, which argued that “supply creates its own demand,” was effectively discredited by Keynes, who asserted that economies could falter without proper intervention.

While Keynes was correct in challenging Say’s Law, questions remain as to whether his prescribed solutions were optimal. Keynes likened money to water, believing that the velocity of money could be hindered by high interest rates or mismatched supply, thereby stalling investment and causing economic stagnation. To remedy this, Keynes advocated for a consumer-driven economy, where individuals were encouraged to spend rather than save. This policy sought to stimulate investment and bolster consumer confidence by enabling central banks to lower interest rates and inject government stimulus into the economy.

Keynesian economics, however, has been misinterpreted and misapplied by politicians and central banks over the past 80 years. What was initially intended as a tool to jump-start the economy during times of recession or depression has evolved into an ongoing justification for excessive government spending, irrespective of the prevailing economic conditions. Western governments have consistently spent more than they receive in tax revenue, often implementing schemes such as Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSFs) to create a captive market for government debt. These policies effectively devalue the credit extended to the government, reducing the purchasing power of those holding such debt.

Many individuals attribute economic hardship to rising interest rates, echoing the sentiments of economists like J. Chalmers, who argue that high interest rates slow down economic activity. However, the primary issue is not the absolute level of interest rates, but the rate of change. Predictability is a fundamental requirement for healthy economies, and stable currency plays a key role in maintaining that predictability. If currency is not stable, there must at least be a widespread agreement on a consistent rate of devaluation, typically around 2% annually, to maintain confidence in its value.

Historically, the natural rate of interest has hovered around 6.5%, prior to the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1912. Higher interest rates lead to a stronger currency with increased purchasing power, helping to keep asset prices in check and aligning economic growth with actual production. In contrast, low interest rates tend to encourage capital flow into non-productive assets, thereby expanding the money supply without a corresponding increase in goods and services. This imbalance fuels inflation.

While higher interest rates may slow consumption and growth, they also foster sustainable and progressive economic development. With higher rates, consumers can save without the pressure of taking on excessive risk to beat inflation. Though debt servicing costs may rise, asset prices generally decline, improving the ratio of savings and earnings to asset values.

Moreover, elevated interest rates can limit excessive government intervention in the economy, fostering a larger, more vibrant private sector. A healthy balance between the public and private sectors contributes to greater domestic economic independence and increases revenue from exports. Under such conditions, government debt as a percentage of tax receipts rises, ensuring that governments are using tax revenues and debt more efficiently allocating funds to projects with a positive return on investment rather than borrowing against future tax receipts for projects with questionable economic returns

The Impact of Shareholder Primacy and Government Expansion on the Economy

As businesses globally increasingly prioritize shareholder returns over the interests of consumers, the long-term stability of the commercial ecosystem is jeopardized. When short-term financial metrics such as share prices and quarterly results overshadow the pursuit of long-term value creation, the market inevitably faces a crisis. This approach, when aggregated across industries, leads to a collapse as the pursuit of immediate financial gains undermines the sustainability of the broader economy.

Similarly, the expansion of government, which has absorbed a growing number of private-sector workers displaced by globalization and technological advancements, cannot indefinitely perpetuate the illusion of economic health. Eventually, the accumulation of debt and misallocation of tax revenue leads to a decline in productivity, consumption, and rising inflation. As private sector income tax revenues diminish, alternative taxation measures are introduced, enabling the government to recover lost funds to sustain its expanding bureaucratic apparatus and central economic planning.

US Public Debt and Its Broader Implications

In the private sector, cost-cutting and technological innovation are crucial for survival. However, when these strategies are implemented across the entire economy, they diminish the demand for goods and services, further exacerbating economic contraction. As the government expands, it competes directly with the shrinking private sector workforce. The government holds a distinct advantage in this competition—it makes the rules, essentially creating a scenario where private sector competition is continually disadvantaged.

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) compounds this issue. In the late 1990s, the internet emerged as a powerful tool, though its potential was not fully realized at the time. Today, AI is seen as the next frontier, with widespread hype surrounding its potential to drive productivity and GDP growth. While AI may contribute to efficiency, there is a real risk that, like outsourcing and offshoring, it could ultimately prove disruptive. If AI replaces up to 50% of the remaining private sector labor force, the government may be forced to continue its expansion, funding more public sector jobs through taxpayer debt. For instance, in August 2024, the Albanese government in Australia created 47,000 jobs, all funded by government debt. While additional government employment may increase tax revenues, the question remains: from whom will these taxes be collected?

The scenario described here may sound extreme, but the evidence suggests it is increasingly plausible. As inflation rises and government borrowing capacity wanes, the ability to sustain such economic models diminishes. The chart of U.S. public debt, currently accumulating at a rate of $82 billion every two days, illustrates the unsustainable trajectory. This situation cannot be rectified simply by changing political leadership—it will likely require a large-scale credit event that could trigger a global economic downturn.

The Australian Economy: Productivity Concerns and the Risk of a Corporate Real Estate Collapse

Turning to Australia, the issue of stagnating productivity remains a key concern. While construction and development companies are pivoting to new strategies, such as focusing on residential build-to-rent projects, these efforts may not shield them from the looming corporate real estate collapse. It is worth noting that despite significant investments in construction jobs, Australia has built fewer free-standing houses today than it did in 1995.

While demand for goods and services may persist, if the means to fulfill that demand are lacking, or if broader economic issues prevent fulfillment, this imbalance could lead to serious economic misadventures. As the global economy faces structural challenges, businesses must prepare for the possibility of further disruption and adapt to the shifting economic landscape

November Market Report

November Market Overview

Crude Oil
Crude oil prices have experienced a decline of 8.5%, largely driven by China’s economic slowdown, with a mixed outlook influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iran. The current support level stands at $66 USD, with resistance observed at $78.50 USD.

Natural Gas
Natural gas is approaching its support level around $2 USD. Market predictions indicate a potential surge in prices as demand is expected to outpace supply. A combination of reduced drilling activity, lower overall production, and capital withdrawal from the market is expected to drive prices higher, with SKILLSOOP forecasting a significant increase.

Gold
Gold is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to heightened risks associated with US Treasuries. Specifically, the short-term default risk and long-term inflation risk contribute to gold’s price rally. While gold is currently rising alongside a strengthening USD, a weakening dollar in the future could accelerate its price surge.

Silver
The gold-to-silver ratio is currently around 80:1, significantly above the historical average of 60:1 in recent years, and the long-term average of 20:1. Given these dynamics, silver is expected to touch $45 USD in the near term, with potential to exceed $100 USD in the future.

Copper
Copper prices are finding support at $4.28 USD, with resistance forming at $4.66 USD. Slightly improved economic conditions in China have bolstered overall sentiment, providing some stability to copper prices.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices have risen, driven by stimulus measures from China. Deutsche Bank forecasts that prices could reach $130 USD in 2025. However, SKILLSOOP remains cautious, anticipating that long-term prices will remain subdued due to Brazil’s increased production capacity, which will apply further pressure on prices.

Aluminium
Aluminium prices are on the rise, influenced by an imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina market. A key driver of this imbalance is the supply chain issues associated with bauxite, particularly with China’s growing reliance on imports from Guinea, which faces challenges related to weather and labor strikes. Australia benefits from this dynamic, contributing 23% of China’s imports, particularly in light of the Indonesian export ban and Guinea’s supply disruptions. However, the cost of alumina, which constitutes 40% of smelter input costs, remains a critical challenge for aluminium producers.

Agricultural Commodities

  • Corn: Prices have weakened, primarily due to oversupply, with grain (wheat) and soybeans contributing to the market softness.
  • Cocoa: While the stronger dollar has provided some price relief, supply issues persist, further exacerbating market pressures.

Economic Indicators

  • Consumer Credit: Consumer credit continues to expand as households struggle to manage mortgage and rent payments, alongside discretionary spending. This is compounded by rising taxation and inflation, further depleting personal savings.
  • Private Sector Employment: The private sector is experiencing a contraction, highlighting broader economic weakness.
  • New Home Sales: Sales have decreased due to supply chain challenges, with Queensland particularly impacted. Mortgage stress is contributing to an increase in properties on the market.
  • Vehicle Sales: Vehicle sales are down, reflecting increased bankruptcy rates within the private sector.
  • Retail Sales: Retail sales have increased by 3.1% in August, reaching $36,376.4 million. However, this increase is likely driven by rising prices rather than higher consumption levels.
  • Manufacturing PMI: The PMI continues to show signs of weakness in the private sector, indicating ongoing economic contraction.

Trade and Government Metrics

  • Imports: Trade imports have declined, driven by contractions in consumer goods demand (down 4.2%) and vehicle parts (down 7.5%).
  • Exports: Trade exports have contracted, with meat exports, grains, minerals, and metals showing negative growth.
  • Government Debt: Australian government debt has increased in August 2024, with the current account balance falling by $4.4 billion to a deficit of $10.7 billion in Q2, primarily due to lower commodity prices and increased income flows to non-residents.

Bond and Interest Rate Markets

  • 10-Year Bond: Capital is increasingly shifting from debt markets to haven assets such as silver and gold, as market sentiment remains cautious.
  • Inflation Rate: The most recent inflation figures are not yet updated, but inflation remains understated relative to the actual economic conditions. The latest recorded inflation rates were as follows:
    • October: 4.37%
    • August: 3.8%
    • July: 3.35% (down 0.45%)

Banking and Government Policy

  • Deposit Rates: Deposit rates have declined in tandem with the cash rate, which remains at 4.35%, increasing bank margins but disadvantaging savers.
  • Government Spending: Government spending has risen in Q2, as have revenue levels in August, with increased debt accumulation seen across the public sector.

Special Report Procurement Misconceptions

Procurement Insights: Bridging Theory and Operational Reality

With extensive experience across multiple industries and having interviewed over 2,000 candidates, I have gained invaluable insights into the successes and challenges businesses face when developing procurement capabilities. The reality is that the procurement function has seen more failures than successes, with a significant amount of rhetoric, jargon, and a persistent disconnect between theoretical frameworks and operational execution.

One of procurement’s most significant limitations is its ability to gain traction and buy-in from key stakeholders. Often, procurement is perceived as a non-exclusive function, with many stakeholders failing to recognize its strategic value.

This perception is not entirely unfounded. Procurement, at its core, is something we all engage with, even at a young age. The basic principles of sourcing and purchasing are learned early on, often when we head to the store with pocket money. As consumers, we interact with platforms like Amazon, making us aware of what a good purchasing experience can look like, especially in the realm of e-commerce. The concept of procurement, however, transcends basic consumer behaviour and requires a more structured, strategic approach in the business environment.

Looking back, the fundamentals of procurement were evident in everyday family life. Growing up in a working-class family, my parents had to meticulously plan and manage household finances to ensure we didn’t go without. Key life events such as family holidays, birthdays, and other cash-intensive moments had to be balanced with ongoing expenses like groceries, utilities, and other essential needs. If we break down the categories of spending, we can see how procurement principles applied in a practical setting:

  • A car purchase could be categorized as capital expenditure (CapEx),
  • Grocery shopping as consumables,
  • Utility bills for electricity and water as operating expenses (OpEx),
  • Home renovations and extensions as project sourcing.

These experiences provided an early foundation in understanding the intricacies of procurement, illustrating how essential this function is in both personal and professional settings.

Procurement: A Strategic Imperative for Success

In the context of household management, procurement decisions were made with careful attention to value and efficiency. For example, when it came to weekly shopping, the list was strategically organized. While cheaper white-label products were available, they were often discarded because they did not deliver the expected value, turning what seemed like a cost-saving measure into an actual loss. Instead, purchasing smaller volumes and opting for preferred brands ensured greater overall value. Similarly, by aggregating services like the phone and TV networks, costs were reduced—effectively applying the principles of supplier aggregation.

This concept of procurement was evident in everyday life. When my mother went to the supermarket, selecting products and passing them through the checkout, she was engaged in a purchasing decision. When new recruits join Jigsaw, I often use such examples to simplify the procurement process and ensure it is clearly understood.

In contrast to other business functions like accounting, marketing, R&D, and engineering, which require specialized expertise, procurement often faces a unique challenge in gaining credibility. To be credible, procurement must be exceptional, and to achieve that level of excellence, it must balance speed of execution with deep knowledge of the portfolio. This is complemented by expertise in market dynamics, finance, and negotiation.

Since these functions must be executed at scale, enablement is critical. This involves the integration of technology, systems, and processes to support procurement initiatives. However, the order of investment is key, as many organizations fail to succeed when they attempt to build on weak foundational elements. With that in mind, let’s explore what often goes wrong in the procurement process.

Does Procurement Perform During a Recession?

One of the most frequently asked questions I encounter is whether procurement can deliver value during a recession. With revenues down, the business may push for a 15% reduction in the supply base. However, when examining the dynamics of a recession, it becomes clear that this approach is not always effective.

In a recession, consumer spending typically contracts, which results in a decrease in revenues. Consequently, the cost of goods sold (COGS) naturally contracts as supply and demand become misaligned initially, while operating expenses (OPEX) also decrease as businesses scale back on discretionary spending such as marketing, recruitment, travel, and other operational costs.

The idea that procurement can drive savings while simultaneously reducing the number of orders and shrinking supplier revenue is highly unlikely. If a supplier agrees to such terms, it’s often a sign of instability, and they may not be able to sustain the relationship in the long term. While some businesses may consider reducing supply risk by consolidating with a sole supplier, this strategy introduces significant risk. In a recession, the potential for supplier insolvency or inability to manage increased capacity is heightened, making this a perilous approach.

Procurement Maturity Curve

For businesses that have invested in procurement over the past 15-20 years and undergone multiple transformations, the opportunities for cost cutting through traditional sourcing (i.e., price reductions) are often exhausted. What is typically lacking are key elements such as robust data analytics, supplier relationship management (SRM), technology adoption, and effective contract management—each of which carries a substantial cost base.

As revenue shrinks, it is unlikely that a business will approve significant investments in procurement enablement—such as technology, systems, and additional headcount—if no further cost reductions can be achieved in terms of supply chain costs. In many cases, businesses respond by reducing headcount and decentralizing procurement, shifting accountability back to business units. Pricing expectations may remain stable due to years of standard contract renewals, allowing departments like marketing to maintain cost levels for a limited period, while procurement resources are cut.

In many organizations, this scenario is unfolding right now, as businesses struggle to balance cost-cutting measures with the need for procurement efficiency.

Small Businesses and Procurement in a Shrinking Market

For smaller businesses that have not invested in procurement infrastructure, there is potential to achieve savings during a recession. These organizations are often at a scale where they may not have the capital to invest in comprehensive, end-to-end procurement frameworks that incorporate technology and personnel. In such cases, a procurement resource might be hired on a reactive basis, tasked with generating savings without the benefit of structured data or clear purchase order records.

This situation often leads to procurement operating in an environment where decisions are made based on instinct and stakeholder input, rather than informed data. The result is reminiscent of procurement practices from the 1980s, where deals were negotiated and contracts signed, but there were insufficient resources to execute on the value promised. In these cases, the procurement process becomes a psychological exercise rather than a value-generating function.

Procurement’s Value in a Growing Business vs. Shrinking Business

Procurement typically adds the most value when a business is experiencing growth. In such environments, procurement has significant leverage in negotiations, as suppliers are eager to expand their revenue. The skill lies in slowing down suppliers’ profit growth on a per-unit basis while increasing the volume of sales. As a business grows its OPEX, CAPEX, and COGS, procurement can play a pivotal role in driving efficiencies between sales and costs.

However, in a shrinking market, the dynamics shift. To maintain profitability, businesses must focus on increasing margins per unit, driven by the fundamental supply and demand principles. While procurement can still add value in this context, it requires a different approach.

Innovation as a Key Lever

For organizations that have made substantial investments in procurement, innovation becomes the key driver during a recession. By leveraging innovation, procurement can help navigate the challenges posed by shrinking revenues and maximize value for the business. However, this is a strategy that remains underutilized and is relatively rare in practice

Does a Dollar Saved Hold More Value Than a Dollar Sold?

The question of whether a dollar saved is more valuable than a dollar earned through sales is a pertinent one. To illustrate this concept, consider the following example: If a company sells a unit for $1, after accounting for costs such as COGS, OPEX, CAPEX, and taxes, the net contribution to the bottom line is only $0.10. This means that 90% of the revenue generated from the sale is consumed by operational expenses.

Conversely, if the same dollar is saved through procurement by negotiating a 10% reduction in the price of goods, the value of the dollar saved is fully realized, contributing $1 directly to the bottom line, with no tax implications. This approach clearly presents a more attractive financial proposition. So, where is the procurement team to make this happen?

The Strategic Business Sense of Procurement

This scenario makes intuitive business sense: by focusing on procurement savings, the company can increase its EBIT and operational cash flow. The savings achieved on the cost base can have a direct impact on profitability, with 100% of the savings realized rather than being eroded by taxes and operational costs. However, achieving these savings requires investment, both in procurement and in complementary services such as professional consulting, technology, and performance-based incentives.

As such, the calculation of savings becomes more nuanced. On one hand, the net savings achieved through procurement may be eroded by the associated costs of securing those savings, such as the investment in procurement resources and external services. On the other hand, these savings are still advantageous, even if the full value is not fully realized in a direct, unencumbered form.

The Impact of Cost Management on Business Performance

While savings and cost management are clearly beneficial, it’s important to recognize that aggressive cost-cutting can have unintended consequences. Often, as businesses focus on reducing costs, customer satisfaction may suffer, resulting in reduced service quality or product offerings. This can further impact top-line revenue, as customers may respond negatively to inferior products or services.

From a revenue perspective, a business’s net margin per unit sold is sustainable over time and can be adjusted for inflation. However, savings on the cost base are finite, and the ability to continue cutting costs diminishes over time, especially if revenues stagnate. This is particularly true when the business reaches a point where cost savings become increasingly difficult to achieve without impacting the quality of the product or service.

Procurement, in mature operations, often delivers value primarily through supporting growth. As a result, businesses may find that procurement’s ability to drive cost savings becomes less effective as growth slows or revenues decline. Eventually, the business may reach a breakeven point in terms of cost-to-sales (CTS), at which point procurement leverage will no longer yield the desired results. If procurement continues to push for savings at this stage, the risk of supplier insolvency or operational instability may increase.

The Diminishing Returns of Procurement in a Recession

In a recession, procurement can become an even less effective lever. Consider the scenario where, as CFO, the contribution margin per unit drops from $0.10 to $0.08 due to increased costs in procurement, recruitment, and professional services. As procurement’s role expands, OPEX increases, which results in further pressure on the profit margin.

At this point, procurement’s role in reducing costs may no longer be enough to sustain profitability. To offset the reduced volume of sales, the business may be forced to increase prices or reduce the complexity of shared services, including procurement, in order to maintain a sufficient return on capital employed (ROCE). In such cases, procurement becomes part of the broader operational restructuring, with the focus shifting back to core business operations and the allocation of capital to areas that drive direct value.

Ultimately, procurement can provide value in both growth and recessionary periods, but its effectiveness depends on the broader context of the business. In times of economic downturn, businesses must focus on improving core operational efficiencies and adjusting their cost structures in a way that maintains sustainable growth and profitability

Why Procurement Transformations Often Fail

In my experience, the number of failed procurement transformations far outweighs the successful ones. As someone who has witnessed numerous attempts at transforming procurement functions, I feel suitably qualified to highlight some of the primary reasons behind this high rate of failure.

As outlined earlier, procurement is a skill set that integrates seamlessly into all aspects of our lives. At a superficial level, it is not a specialized corporate skill set in the same way that HR or sales might be. This naturally raises the question: what distinguishes professional procurement from everyday purchasing practices?

The Key Differences Between Household Budgeting and Professional Procurement

The distinction between a procurement manager and a household budget controller is significant. One of the most notable differences is leverage. In a professional setting, having access to substantial spend or the backing of a major brand allows procurement managers to act as price makers rather than price takers. In contrast, an individual buyer, like a consumer managing a household budget, is limited to sourcing the best available option in the market without the same ability to influence prices.

Scale also plays a critical role. A professional buyer is tasked with managing large, complex categories, often serving multiple internal customers. This requires breaking down spend into segments (not just category management) and employing tailored strategies for each segment. Furthermore, contracts in a professional procurement context are more complex. Unlike an amateur buyer who receives standard invoices without much involvement in contract negotiations, a professional buyer plays a key role in shaping terms, conditions, and the overall contract lifecycle.

Lastly, data and processes are fundamental to professional procurement. Thousands of transactions need to be accurately processed and recorded, ensuring that spending patterns and insights can be captured and analyzed to drive better outcomes.

While we all engage in some form of procurement in our daily lives—whether sourcing products for a renovation or managing a personal budget—most of us lack the specialized expertise required in procurement, such as legal, financial, and negotiation skills. True professional category management demands a combination of all these competencies, and it is the absence of these skills that often contributes to procurement transformation failures.

The Core Reason for Procurement Transformation Failures: Unrealistic Expectations and Misguided Phases

The primary reason procurement transformations fail lies in the approach businesses take to development and the expectations they set. Many organizations assume they can transition from a transactional purchasing environment to advanced category management in just 3–5 years, which is nearly impossible for large businesses.

Instead of following a structured, phased development process, organizations often rush headlong into adopting “best practice” category management frameworks. This term, which is frequently used as a buzzword, is nothing more than a marketing label designed to sell turnkey services at scale. In the worst cases, businesses fail to invest in necessary tools like data management systems and SRM platforms, choosing to hire category managers—often in title only—and appoint policy and governance professionals to enforce rules. This approach is akin to constructing a house by starting with the roof.

The Role of Leadership and Realistic Investment in Procurement

While it is not entirely the procurement lead’s fault, the pressure from CFOs and Boards for immediate ROI is a major contributing factor. If a company is investing millions into procurement to realize an immediate, tangible return on investment, the pressure for results becomes overwhelming. This compressed timeline benefits transformation firms, who are often paid based on projected savings, leading to a focus on short-term results rather than long-term value creation.

To ensure long-term success, businesses must be prepared to delay gratification. Phase 1 of any procurement transformation should focus on enablement, not immediately diving into category management and sourcing. The procurement model must first be tailored to fit the organizational structure, followed by the adoption of the appropriate technology, systems, and processes.

Key considerations at this phase include determining whether the organization operates with a single or multiple P&Ls, whether decision-making is fragmented across the business, and how technology and systems can effectively support all stakeholders. These foundational steps take time, and businesses must first adopt new methods of transaction management before making any changes to procurement behavior.

The Importance of Data, Technology, and System Integration

During this initial phase, the primary goal should be to integrate procurement with finance, ensuring accurate spend tracking through the proper systems and processes. At this stage, procurement is still reactive to the business’s needs, but it can provide valuable data and insights, increasing operational efficiency and driving supplier margin reductions. It is crucial to hire talent that can follow processes and demonstrate solid business acumen, but not expect advanced category management maturity at this point. This helps keep salary costs in check and aligns investment with achievable results.

The bulk of the initial investment should focus on setting up procurement for long-term success. Once the business has fully integrated its systems and data and completed some basic sourcing activities, it can begin to implement more sophisticated procurement strategies, such as outsourcing, offshoring, and category management.

Transitioning to Advanced Procurement Practices

Once the business has matured in its procurement practices, the transition to advanced category management should be gradual. This process involves developing the skills necessary for true category management, which requires legal, financial, sales, and negotiation expertise. At this stage, it may make sense to appoint Portfolio Managers to oversee category managers and facilitate the transition from sourcing to advanced category management.

The most successful procurement operations are those that adopt a methodical, phased approach, avoiding the boom-and-bust cycles that result in recurring transformations every 5 years. By investing in the right foundations, businesses can set up procurement for long-term value and success.

The Misconception of Category Management as Best Practice

Category management has garnered an elevated status as the target for “best practice” procurement—though it remains unclear what exactly constitutes best practice. While it is true that category management can deliver substantial benefits, not every business requires it, and in some cases, implementing a category management approach may even prove detrimental.

For category management to be effective, a company must possess a demand arc, where historical data informs future demand. This allows for constant adjustments to pricing, value, innovation, and risk elements. Industries such as manufacturing, retail, and pharmaceuticals are prime examples of sectors where category management thrives, particularly for spend portfolios that include packaging, ingredients, chemicals, and distribution. These are typically high-value components of COGS or critical OPEX that are directly tied to customer fulfillment or act as barriers to entry. As a result, such businesses can leverage more than just price in their spend portfolios, incorporating strategic positioning and revenue considerations.

When Category Management Is Not the Right Fit

However, for businesses focused on project-based work—such as construction, civil engineering, and mining—the category management model is often not applicable. In these industries, historical demand has little bearing on future projects, and the uniqueness of each project means that what transpired previously is of minimal relevance. Furthermore, many projects use diverse pricing models, which can completely eliminate the leverage of price, rendering category management less effective.

Additionally, spend portfolios that fall under OPEX often operate within price-driven parameters, where the primary objective is cost reduction. While a category management approach may sometimes be appropriate in these cases, it is not always the best fit, particularly if the company’s top-down management or policy does not align with the structure of category management. The process of implementing category management is typically a high-investment, high-cost initiative, which can yield a poor return on investment if it is misapplied.

The Risks of Misapplying Category Management

Calling a function “category management” when it isn’t truly category management only adds unnecessary costs. In such cases, a company may find itself hiring higher-level capabilities that are ultimately underutilized, leading to higher retention volatility as resources become disenchanted with the lack of sophistication in the function.

In many cases, it may be more effective to label the function as what it truly is—a tendering team—and avoid the high costs associated with category management salaries and technology implementations that are poorly leveraged. By doing so, businesses can still achieve some value through basic negotiation tactics without significantly impacting net margins on sales revenue.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while category management can be highly beneficial for certain industries, it is not a one-size-fits-all solution. It is important to assess the needs and structure of the business before implementing such a model. In many cases, simpler procurement strategies, such as tendering and basic negotiations, can provide sufficient value without the need for the high investments associated with category management. The key is to align procurement strategies with business objectives and avoid the trap of adopting “best practice” frameworks that may not be suitable for the company’s operations

December Insights

In our November report, SKILLSOOP forecasted rising natural gas prices due to capital constraints and investment shortfalls. This trend appears to be unfolding as expected. As winter intensifies in Europe and North America, increased demand is expected to push prices higher.

Oil prices are experiencing a mild decline, with support holding at $66 per barrel as indicated in November. Geopolitical tensions, particularly a potential direct conflict between Russia and the U.S. or between Iran and the U.S., could lead to significant price increases. In the interim, a weakening global economy, particularly in China, the U.S., and Japan, is suppressing oil prices. If this economic weakness persists, oil prices could dip to $50 per barrel. At the time of writing, Ukraine has launched long-range U.S. missiles into Russia, which places various regions of Europe at heightened risk.

Copper prices are expected to continue their downward trend, having already declined since their May peak. Weak stimulus from China and the strength of the U.S. dollar will continue to exert downward pressure on commodity prices. Additionally, former President Trump’s focus on tariffs may disrupt global trade and growth expectations.

As forecasted in SKILLSOOP’s November report, iron ore prices are on a steady decline. China’s stimulus efforts have proven insufficient, while advancements in recycling technologies are contributing to the downward pressure on iron ore. As Rio Tinto’s Simandou supply increases, we anticipate an eventual market surplus, which will push iron ore prices down to approximately $80.

Aluminium prices have surged due to the removal of tax rebates on Chinese exports. If this rebate is passed on to importers—as is possible, given the contraction in Chinese supply—aluminum prices may increase further. This rebate withdrawal could be part of a broader strategy to counteract potential U.S. tariffs.

In the agricultural sector, corn export inspections increased slightly week-over-week, reaching 32.3 million bushels, which is on the higher end of analyst estimates ranging from 25.6 million to 35.4 million bushels. Mexico remains the top destination for corn exports, receiving 15.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2024/25 marketing year are ahead of last year’s pace, with a total of 356.8 million bushels.

Wheat export inspections, however, were disappointing, reaching only 7.2 million bushels, which fell below analyst estimates of 11.0 to 15.6 million bushels. Mexico again was the largest destination, importing 2.3 million bushels. Nevertheless, cumulative totals for the 2024/25 marketing year remain moderately ahead of last year’s pace, totalling 379.4 million bushels. Ukraine’s agricultural ministry reported grain exports through November 18, including 306.8 million bushels of wheat and 238.2 million bushels of corn. Both figures exceed sales from the 2023/24 marketing year.

Cocoa prices continue to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, which are impacting profit forecasts for major manufacturers reliant on this commodity. Contributing factors include European deforestation regulations set to be enforced from December 30, 2024, as well as structural declines in the Ivory Coast and Ghana due to aging crops and viral insect infestations.

Gold has experienced a healthy pullback, with suppression driven by bullion bank manipulation in paper markets. A strong U.S. dollar will push global inflation higher, particularly in the context of geopolitical instability. As nations attempt to lower interest rates to stimulate their economies, inflation is expected to surge, causing gold prices to surpass $3,000 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar continues to rise, largely driven by investor confidence in the Trump administration’s economic policies. This trend has led to capital flowing from bonds into equities. However, a strong dollar hampers the U.S.’s ability to re-industrialize, which may prompt President Trump to weaken the dollar through stimulus, leading to further rejection of U.S. treasuries.

The silver deficit is projected to decrease by 4%, as production increases by 1% from Chile, Mexico, and the U.S., while recycling efforts grow by 5%. Overall, a 2% increase in silver supply is expected to offset a 1% growth in demand. Despite this, analysts continue to forecast a rapid decline in silver availability. The long-term outlook predicts silver prices could exceed $200 per ounce over the next decade.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are expected to rise as creditor nations seek to avoid U.S. risk, and investor confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage inflation and the government’s ability to control its budget wanes. We predict an initial flight to safety, which will temporarily lower yields, before rates gradually climb towards 6% over the longer cycle.

Example of IMPACT Resume

MICKY MOUSE
CAPABILITY RESUME

Qualifications: MBA, MCIPS
Mobile: 0444 444 555
Email: mmouse@gmail.com


Candidate Summary

A highly accomplished and tertiary-qualified (MBA) procurement professional with extensive experience in FMCG, Retail, and Mining sectors, managing procurement spends of up to $750M across portfolios including Packaging, MRO, Co-Pack, and HME. Proven expertise in leading high-performing teams of up to 20 FTEs, with a strong focus on category strategy development, supplier negotiation, and P2P implementation utilizing advanced technologies such as Coupa and ARIBA. Seeking a leadership role in the private sector to drive revenue growth, manage risk, and optimize ROCE across complex third-party matrices.


Career History

EmployerTitleTenure
QantasProcurement DirectorMar 2008 – Aug 2024
NestléPortfolio ManagerJan 2002 – Feb 2008
BHPProcurement AnalystSep 1998 – Dec 2001

Key Achievements

Achievement 1: Category Management (MRO)

  • Reduced escalating MRO costs, which had been increasing 3.7% YoY on a $100M category spend.
  • Designed and implemented a new in-house MRO strategy, creating a dedicated MRO P&L to service similar businesses.
  • Converted a cost center into a revenue-generating unit, achieving $1.5M in cost savings, $3M in additional revenue, and $500K in NPAT.

Achievement 2: Leadership & Change Management

  • Successfully led the implementation of a $12M e-procurement system, streamlining transactions, reducing headcount, and integrating supplier networks.
  • Secured team buy-in through proactive communication and early adoption strategies, facilitating a seamless transition.
  • Repositioned 25% of team members into alternate roles and engaged a career management firm to assist a further 30%.
  • Delivered a projected net benefit of $21M over five years.

Achievement 3: BPO Facilities Management

  • Spearheaded a capability sourcing initiative for waste management, cleaning, MRO, and labor services, addressing a $50M annual spend across 20 plants.
  • Engaged and awarded a single outsource provider, optimizing service delivery and achieving $15M in savings over three years.
  • Ensured long-term P&L benefits through strategic design-phase solutions and rigorous supplier contract management.

Achievement 4: Facilities Cost Optimization

  • Delivered substantial savings by redefining utility and facilities management services across 20 plants.
  • Reduced costs by $15M over three years by leveraging outsourcing and strategic supplier engagement.

Achievement 5: Digital Transformation in Procurement

  • Drove the adoption of an advanced e-procurement system, integrating procurement processes and reducing recurring costs.
  • Positioned the organization for long-term operational efficiency with a projected five-year net benefit of $21M.
  • Demonstrated exceptional change management capabilities by re-skilling and redeploying 55% of the workforce impacted by the transition.